Belt System Updates -- June 2nd, 2011

[Tony D]

Originally Posted by JAS0643

I think you are missing the point I am trying to make. The developers have given us the percent chance we have of getting an extra box. What that means is if you harvest crops you can take the number of fields you have and multiple it by the percent you are at and that is ruffly what you will get. While there is a "chance" involved it is the same with each fields (unless you reach a new belt) and the law of probability applies here. Take flipping a quarter if you have a normal quarter (by normal one side is not weighted) you have a 50% chance of it landing on heads when flipped. Now you can flip that coin 100 times and you will get heads 50 times, then flip it 100 more times and get heads 48 times, then flip it 100 more times and get heads 52 times. So the first time you flipped it 100 times you got exactly 50% which is what is supposed to happen, but the next time you got heads 48% of the time, and the time after that you got heads 52% of the time. If you keep doing this you will see that while you will not always get heads exactly 50% of the time it will be very close to 50% of the time and average out to 50% of the time when done enough times. So if yo are at x percent for a belt and harvest a field of crops you will get approximately x% of the fields you harvest. There is no indication of an extra box and that may have to do with coding and the fact that the floating text takes up a lot of memory and people have complained about that in the past. I would also suspect that a lot of people have the floating text turned off so why brother if they will never see it.

Actually mate you can flip a coin 100 times and it could land on heads every time , improbable yes , but that is why it is called chance

[Oopsy-Bumpty]

Originally Posted by JAS0643

I think you are missing the point I am trying to make. The developers have given us the percent chance we have of getting an extra box. What that means is if you harvest crops you can take the number of fields you have and multiple it by the percent you are at and that is ruffly what you will get. While there is a "chance" involved it is the same with each fields (unless you reach a new belt) and the law of probability applies here. Take flipping a quarter if you have a normal quarter (by normal one side is not weighted) you have a 50% chance of it landing on heads when flipped. Now you can flip that coin 100 times and you will get heads 50 times, then flip it 100 more times and get heads 48 times, then flip it 100 more times and get heads 52 times. So the first time you flipped it 100 times you got exactly 50% which is what is supposed to happen, but the next time you got heads 48% of the time, and the time after that you got heads 52% of the time. If you keep doing this you will see that while you will not always get heads exactly 50% of the time it will be very close to 50% of the time and average out to 50% of the time when done enough times. So if yo are at x percent for a belt and harvest a field of crops you will get approximately x% of the fields you harvest. There is no indication of an extra box and that may have to do with coding and the fact that the floating text takes up a lot of memory and people have complained about that in the past. I would also suspect that a lot of people have the floating text turned off so why brother if they will never see it.

You amaze me Jas, and yep I have a better understanding now of what you have been saying . BUT for me personally it will still be so much easier if we were told when and what we got. And yes you are right about the floaters, so I think the answer to that is that all our rewards go to our gift box and not directly to storage. That instantly removes all the guess work for everyone.

Actually I think I will add that to one of the suggestion threads

[Docperk]

Has anyone else noticed that notification of the belt is sometimes slow? I have had someone harvesting several fields and be done or at least almost done with the next field or two before I received notification of the belt from the previous fields.

[Oopsy-Bumpty]

Originally Posted by Docperk

Has anyone else noticed that notification of the belt is sometimes slow? I have had someone harvesting several fields and be done or at least almost done with the next field or two before I received notification of the belt from the previous fields.

Yes it does happen from time to time

[JAS0643]

Originally Posted by Tony D

Actually mate you can flip a coin 100 times and it could land on heads every time , improbable yes , but that is why it is called chance

While the probability of that happening is not 0 it is very small and if you flip a coin enough times it will average out to 50%. So assuming that the chance of getting an extra box is a fair one (which I am sure it is) then if you do the math every time you will get close to the percent you are at for that belt. Now one day it may be a little more the next a little less but on average it is what you would expect to get. Like with any game of chance the more you play the better you have of hitting the exact percent of times it says. So if you harvest 10 fields of something you might only get 5 extra boxes and not the 7 you would expect but if you harvest 1000 fields it will be a lot closer to the 72% you should get. I think the water is set up this way take the big lake with boat you have a 1 in 7 chance of getting a salmon when you fish. There are 199 fish so you should get 28 salmon but you do not always get 28 salmon some days it is 24 some it is 32 it will always be close to the 28 but not always exactly 28. The lakes are not set up to give the exact same number of each type of fish each time you fish they will all very but will be close to the number you expect to get. You will not fish the lake and only get 2 salmon even though that might be possible it never happens.

[Tony D]

Originally Posted by JAS0643

While the probability of that happening is not 0 it is very small and if you flip a coin enough times it will average out to 50%. So assuming that the chance of getting an extra box is a fair one (which I am sure it is) then if you do the math every time you will get close to the percent you are at for that belt. Now one day it may be a little more the next a little less but on average it is what you would expect to get. Like with any game of chance the more you play the better you have of hitting the exact percent of times it says. So if you harvest 10 fields of something you might only get 5 extra boxes and not the 7 you would expect but if you harvest 1000 fields it will be a lot closer to the 72% you should get. I think the water is set up this way take the big lake with boat you have a 1 in 7 chance of getting a salmon when you fish. There are 199 fish so you should get 28 salmon but you do not always get 28 salmon some days it is 24 some it is 32 it will always be close to the 28 but not always exactly 28. The lakes are not set up to give the exact same number of each type of fish each time you fish they will all very but will be close to the number you expect to get. You will not fish the lake and only get 2 salmon even though that might be possible it never happens.

Average and chance are not the same thing mate

[max_river]

i have question but not sure if it is right place to post sorry if it is not. my question is do you think our div rank is going to fit into this some how

[Oopsy-Bumpty]

I am enjoying this conversation. So correct me if I am wrong, as I have never given any thought before regarding the difference between average and chance.

So if you are a very unlucky person left to chance you might never get anything...although as you said Tony, improbable. In other words it is totally out of our control. Whereas average although still bit of a lottery is something you can to a degree make an educated guess as to when and what you will receive based on history.

Am I getting there?

[Oopsy-Bumpty]

Originally Posted by max_river

i have question but not sure if it is right place to post sorry if it is not. my question is do you think our div rank is going to fit into this some how

Yes max, the higher your rank, the greater your chances of a bonus.

[max_river]

i will take anything i get free is free and i like that