Belt System Updates -- June 2nd, 2011

[JAS0643]

Originally Posted by Oopsy-Bumpty

Ah but Jas the 72% is not the percentage we get, but it's a 72% CHANCE of getting something, which is quite different. In other words it is not guaranteed that we get the reward every time we harvest, no matter what rank or belt we have. Which is why I am hoping that if we are lucky enough to get the reward we get some kind of unobtrusive notification that we did, including how much we got

I think you are missing the point I am trying to make. The developers have given us the percent chance we have of getting an extra box. What that means is if you harvest crops you can take the number of fields you have and multiple it by the percent you are at and that is ruffly what you will get. While there is a "chance" involved it is the same with each fields (unless you reach a new belt) and the law of probability applies here. Take flipping a quarter if you have a normal quarter (by normal one side is not weighted) you have a 50% chance of it landing on heads when flipped. Now you can flip that coin 100 times and you will get heads 50 times, then flip it 100 more times and get heads 48 times, then flip it 100 more times and get heads 52 times. So the first time you flipped it 100 times you got exactly 50% which is what is supposed to happen, but the next time you got heads 48% of the time, and the time after that you got heads 52% of the time. If you keep doing this you will see that while you will not always get heads exactly 50% of the time it will be very close to 50% of the time and average out to 50% of the time when done enough times. So if yo are at x percent for a belt and harvest a field of crops you will get approximately x% of the fields you harvest. There is no indication of an extra box and that may have to do with coding and the fact that the floating text takes up a lot of memory and people have complained about that in the past. I would also suspect that a lot of people have the floating text turned off so why brother if they will never see it.

[Tony D]

Originally Posted by JAS0643

I think you are missing the point I am trying to make. The developers have given us the percent chance we have of getting an extra box. What that means is if you harvest crops you can take the number of fields you have and multiple it by the percent you are at and that is ruffly what you will get. While there is a "chance" involved it is the same with each fields (unless you reach a new belt) and the law of probability applies here. Take flipping a quarter if you have a normal quarter (by normal one side is not weighted) you have a 50% chance of it landing on heads when flipped. Now you can flip that coin 100 times and you will get heads 50 times, then flip it 100 more times and get heads 48 times, then flip it 100 more times and get heads 52 times. So the first time you flipped it 100 times you got exactly 50% which is what is supposed to happen, but the next time you got heads 48% of the time, and the time after that you got heads 52% of the time. If you keep doing this you will see that while you will not always get heads exactly 50% of the time it will be very close to 50% of the time and average out to 50% of the time when done enough times. So if yo are at x percent for a belt and harvest a field of crops you will get approximately x% of the fields you harvest. There is no indication of an extra box and that may have to do with coding and the fact that the floating text takes up a lot of memory and people have complained about that in the past. I would also suspect that a lot of people have the floating text turned off so why brother if they will never see it.

Actually mate you can flip a coin 100 times and it could land on heads every time , improbable yes , but that is why it is called chance

[JAS0643]

Here are some figures to show what I have been saying about how much extra you get. I just harvested purple grapes 2 farms of them and looked at them as I moved through the belts.

I needed 49 fields to reach the brown belt so for those 49 fields I had a 22% chance of getting an extra box. I harvested the fields and had 11 extra boxes. 11/49=.2245 so that is 22.45% extra. Now lets take the 49 and multiple that by 22% and see what we get. 49*22%=10.78 I should get 10.78 extra boxes I got 11.

Then I needed more grapes then left on the farm to get the next box so I harvested the rest of the farm with a 28% chance of getting an extra box. I harvested 972 fields got 272 extra boxes. 272/972=.2798 so that is 27.98% extra. 972*28%=274.12 I should get 274.12 extra boxes I got 272.

Then I went to the next farm and I needed to harvest 252 grapes to get to the next belt so I still had a 28% chance of getting an extra box, after harvesting the 252 grapes I had an extra 73 boxes. 73/252=.2897 so that is 28.97% extra. 252*28%=70.56 I should get 70.56 extra boxes I got 73.

Now I needed more grapes then I had left to get the next belt so I harvest the rest of the farm. With this bunch I had a 36% chance of getting an extra box. That was 739 fields I got 272 extra boxes. 272/739=.3681 so that is 36.81% extra. 793*36%=266.04 I should get 266.04 extra boxes I got 272.

As you can see each and every time I got the percent of extra crops for the belt I was at if I took the percent for that belt and multiplied it by the number of fields I harvested. Although the developers have used the word "chance" in their description of the reward from what I have seen there really isn't much "chance" about it you will get the extra % for the harvest based on your belt. So if you are at 72% and harvest 1000 fields you will get 720 +/- a few each time you harvest. Just for a little more information I did not reload the game at anytime during the harvesting the game just automatically switched to the new percent.

[Oopsy-Bumpty]

Originally Posted by JAS0643

I think you are missing the point I am trying to make. The developers have given us the percent chance we have of getting an extra box. What that means is if you harvest crops you can take the number of fields you have and multiple it by the percent you are at and that is ruffly what you will get. While there is a "chance" involved it is the same with each fields (unless you reach a new belt) and the law of probability applies here. Take flipping a quarter if you have a normal quarter (by normal one side is not weighted) you have a 50% chance of it landing on heads when flipped. Now you can flip that coin 100 times and you will get heads 50 times, then flip it 100 more times and get heads 48 times, then flip it 100 more times and get heads 52 times. So the first time you flipped it 100 times you got exactly 50% which is what is supposed to happen, but the next time you got heads 48% of the time, and the time after that you got heads 52% of the time. If you keep doing this you will see that while you will not always get heads exactly 50% of the time it will be very close to 50% of the time and average out to 50% of the time when done enough times. So if yo are at x percent for a belt and harvest a field of crops you will get approximately x% of the fields you harvest. There is no indication of an extra box and that may have to do with coding and the fact that the floating text takes up a lot of memory and people have complained about that in the past. I would also suspect that a lot of people have the floating text turned off so why brother if they will never see it.

You amaze me Jas, and yep I have a better understanding now of what you have been saying . BUT for me personally it will still be so much easier if we were told when and what we got. And yes you are right about the floaters, so I think the answer to that is that all our rewards go to our gift box and not directly to storage. That instantly removes all the guess work for everyone.

Actually I think I will add that to one of the suggestion threads